As an intellectual, I am inclined to appreciate the apparent
hard work and research that must have gone into the article ‘’Proposed
$30billion Loan: Avoiding the Eurobond Curse, by Uche Uwaleke in the Tuesday,
November 22, 2016 edition of THISDAY Newspaper.
However, it is necessary that
we address some of the ‘concerns’ raised by the writer in relation to a segment
of the proposed $30billion loan, specifically, the $4.5billion Eurobond
component. Without prejudice to the writer’s conclusions, this class of loans
are not as risky as he has made them out to be, especially for a country of
Nigeria’s niche and unique attributes. Even more so if we are to consider the
principles underpinning the decision to go to the International Capital Market
to borrow at this time.
Recently, the Director-General, Debt Management Office, Dr
Abraham Nwankwo, in announcing the approval of the Federal Government’s new
debt management policy explained that ‘’the debt management strategy we are going
to pursue over the next four years (2016-2018) takes into account the fact
that, for now, Nigeria’s public debt portfolio is dominated by domestic debt’.
He explained further that ‘after the Paris and London Club exits of between
2004 and 2006, the country took a deliberate decision to develop its domestic
bond market and to do most of its public borrowing from domestic sources to
develop that market. That objective has been sufficiently achieved. Therefore,
taking into account that external financing sources are, on the average,
cheaper than domestic sources, it becomes more necessary to slant more of the
borrowing in favour of external sources.’’
One of the most globally expected reactions to recession, as
an economic situation, is increased public sector spending to activate
weakening productive sectors of the economy and eventually generate the much
needed revenue from elevated activities – a prospect which makes debt servicing
a less cumbersome issue. The alternative is regression and near collapse of
economic activity if government fails to act in the face of a slump. It is
gratifying that Mr Uwaleke has himself acknowledged the enormous funding
challenges faced by the government.
This knowledge seems to fly in the face of the pessimism he
harbours regarding the prospects of the Nigerian economy, going into 2017. He
deliberately or, for that matter, out of a predilection to cause mischief,
chose to ignore all the clear and positive signs that point towards a bright
outlook in key sectors currently undergoing massive reforms and aggressive
investments. We have in mind the reinvigoration of the agriculture and solid
minerals sectors as well as the burgeoning telecommunications sector that is
poised to deliver even more revenues to the government.
His dim expectation of Nigeria’s ability to avoid the
‘Eurobond curse’ as he calls it, deserves a second look not because of its
validity but because it is deficient in its conception. The writer describes
the ‘Eurobond curse’ as ‘the increasing burden on the issuer of the servicing
of a debt procured on unfavourable terms (at a very high cost) in a desperate
attempt to overcome economic challenges”. In the first instance, Nigeria’s
current recession can hardly be described as desperate since most projections
indicate a quick recovery in as early as mid-2017. Secondly, the countries with
which Nigeria’s case is being compared do not possess a quarter of her
potentials, capabilities and debt repayment capacity.
Again, writing as a Guest Columnist in THISDAY Newspaper
edition of Monday 21, November, 2016, Nwankwo alluded to the immense unutilised
potentials of the Nigerian economy in a most creative way by putting forward a
thesis thus: ‘Nigeria passes the test for the necessary condition for recording
a triumph over its current economic setback. The resilience of Nigeria’s
economy and sources of the solutions to the economic challenge are
paradoxically embedded in the major sources of the problem. First, we see the
logic of this thesis in the external sector – the import structure and the
export structure. Using 2014 figures, Nigeria’s consumer goods’ imports
(including food imports) amounted to $29billion.
Applying the right collective attitude, we should programme
to reduce this, in the minimum, by 50 per cent in the next 3-5 years, achieve a
cumulative reduction of 75 per cent in the next 5-7 years and a further
cumulative reduction of 85 per cent in the next 7-10 years. This will give an
average annual forex savings of $15billion, $22billion and $25billion respectively
in the next three phases.’
This approach can be applied to so many sectors of the
economy. For example, the textile sector which has been moribund (or almost
non-existent) for decades now and which, in its hey days, contributed a great
deal to the GDP through job creation, value addition and income generation.
Its comatose nature is what gave rise to the dominance of
Chinese or other imported textile products in the country.
Or is it the Oil
Mills, Cotton Ginneries, auto plants or steel manufacturing companies that have
remained underutilised for so long? The fact is that there is so much idle
capacity in the economy which, if properly deployed, can generate enough
inflows to take care of the challenge of repaying a Eurobond debt which, in
percentage terms, does not pose a threat to an economy of the size of
Nigeria’s. But to do so effectively, we must first secure the funds and use
them to fight the ravaging effects of the current recession.
*Contributed by Olutayo Isaac who wrote in from Lagos
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