Under Tinubu: Insecurity becomes chronic – ITREALMS

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The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has declared the Nigerian state under president Bola Ahmed Tinubu as chronic, reports ITREALMS.

EIU in its latest country report on Nigeria made available to ITREALMS, noted that insecurity is chronic in many areas, with the security forces too overstretched to counter multiple crises effectively.


“High inflation, low economic growth and unpopular market reforms present substantial political stability risks. Labour unions are likely to be active, with a high risk of industrial action that affects the economy,” the EIU forecast which was released on March 1 and edited by Editor: Benedict Craven stated.

On the political and economic outlook, EIU also noted that Nigeria despite being a joint-largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, an oil exporter and an OPEC member, banks on hydrocarbons-generated revenue to the Federal Government to the turn of 50 per cent and over 80 per cent of export receipts, whereas agriculture and services dwarf industry as contributors to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

“Economic growth will slow in 2024 as a new bout of inflationary pressure, a large currency devaluation and monetary tightening led to a contraction in domestic demand,” EIU outlined.

Growth, they said, will be higher in 2025-28 as monetary conditions ease and will be boosted by investment in the recently deregulated power sector.

Pointing out that a large devaluation of the naira in early February 2023 heralded further depreciation, as inflation remains high and real short-term interest rates remain negative. Just as a shortage of hardcurrency liquidity may eventually be addressed by a currency float, expressing hope that foreign reserves will rise slowly in the next four years.

Chuks Egbune/Editor