We welcomed 2024 with dancing, high-five, kisses, hugs, and singing amidst blinking red lights everywhere, worldwide. On the left hand, the world carried a hamper of chaos into 2024 with frightening contents, while on her right hand, a briefcase of HOPE.
Now, both Iran and Israel are on the brink, at a critical tipping point with far-reaching global consequences- economically and geopolitically.
On the13th of April 2024, the Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), in coordination with the Lebanese group, Hezbollah and the Yemen Houthis, sent about 350 drones and ballistic missiles to Israel in response to the April 1st assassination of significant Iranian military generals in Damascus. Israel, not known for turning the other cheek when slapped, and in accordance with her ‘’11th commandment’’- the Mosaic 2.0 law that states ‘’thou shall take an eye plus a nose plus a neck for one Israel eye, responded in kind on April 19, the birthday of Iranian most respected Spiritual leader, Hosseni Khamenei, by striking vital military targets inside Iran. Israel, by its action, sent a strong warning to Iran that, despite Iranian deployment of Russian most advanced air defense technology (S300 & S400 Triumf missile system), nowhere is safe inside Iran. Will Iran choose escalation or de-escalation? Why is China conspicuously quiet? Or has China gone on geopolitical sabbatical? Read till the end.
The mathematics of Middle East geopolitics, when one adds actions that happened on October 7th, 2023 plus April 1st, 2024, plus April 13th, 2024 and April 18th, 2024, coupled with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war shows that the world is at a period of an INTERREGNUM or a Tipping Point.
Since 2015, particularly, the world seems to be in a perpetual state of circular crisis, putting geopolitical analysts in a state of galloping anxiety as they await the next shoe to drop and the next global stomach-churning event that will upend people’s destinies.
Today, the world is faced with massive disruption of the global supply chain, hyperinflation, the rising and unsustainable U.S. public debt of about $35 Trillion, the shutdown of Red Sea shipping lanes responsible for over 12% of the world’s trade, rumor of another incoming global Pandemic- let us call it, for now, ‘’COVID-24’’, and the relentless push by BRICS nations to overthrow the incumbent world reserve currency, the USD. If the Dollar is dethroned, America’s power, wealth and influence will be halved immediately. This is why America wants to teach President Putin a big lesson that the person whose head is used to crack coconut will not be alive to eat from it.
The man who started the anti-dollar campaign, Ghaddafi, was killed like a fowl and buried like a common criminal in an unmarked grave somewhere in the desert. When two elephants fight, the grass (Ukrainians) suffers. As Moscow pushed its so-called ‘’meat grinder strategy’’, over 50,000 (official) of its soldiers have lost the lives, with almost the same figure on the Ukraine side. unofficially, the figure of lives lost so far in the Russia -Ukraine senseless war is put at close to half a million, while 3.6 million, according to the United Nations, have been displaced and another 6.3million refugees, outside Ukraine.
The INTERREGNUM is a period between when a super power or a group of power bases dominating geopolitical space and an UNDERDOG rises to become both the de facto and de jure ‘’World’s Kabiyesi’’. The period is always characterized by uncertainty, unimaginable chaos, and complicated alignments and realignments, just like the unusual military pact between Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, on one hand and Israel, the West, on the other- against Iran, recently.
In a period of interregnum, religion takes a back seat, and self-preservation and opportunity maximization are prioritized. A weakened Iran makes Saudi Arabia fulfilled, which only Israel can deliver. However, one relevant question that CNN and other analysts need to ask is: why would America and her Allies (NATO +) provide ironclad protection for Israel (a non-NATO, Middle East nation) with cutting-edge military air defense but refused to extend similar maximum protection to Ukraine (a non-NATO but 100% European/Caucasian nation)?
In 1945, during WWII, BLOOD was thicker than DOLLAR but in 2024, DOLLAR trumps BLOOD! It will be recalled that the nuclear bomb developed by the Albert Einstein, a half-German, half-Swiss and half-Jewish American genius, and his team was meant to be used on Hitler’s Germany, a Caucasian nation, with a view to bringing the war to an end. Why then was the novel DEVIL bomb dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki instead of Munich and Hamburg? One school of thought argued that race played a role, even though Germany’s back had been broken by the time the bomb was read. In the ongoing Middle East tango economic considerations is the name of the game.
Geopolitics today runs on four tires with one spare: Military/Intelligence supremacy, financial fortitude, Technology Dominance and Strategic Alliance. The spare tire, being Geography. Russia is fighting in Ukraine primarily because of Geography just as America will fight in Mexico and Canada if China transgresses. On that score, Israel scores 80/100, while Ukraine scores 20/100, geopolitically speaking.
America and her Allies acted as they did in Iran-Israeli’s tango in order to protect the fragile, fragmenting global economy from total collapse, which could have occurred if an Israel-Iran war escalated into a full-scale regional conflict. The prices of oil would have gone to the stratosphere, thereby bringing the global economy into a complete ruin-, i.e. a repeat of what happened in 1973.
If Russia were to wipe Ukraine off the map, the world will face a manageable crisis which is curable within a year through aggressive wheat farming in the U.S. However, if Israel were to destroy Iran using its “maximum secret power.” the world will suffer immediate cardiac arrest, a situation that could take a decade to remedy.
However, if Israel were to be destroyed by a unified Russia-Middle East force, the entire world would go down with Israel.
This is why America will never allow “ONE MIDDLE EAST” with one voice, one vote and veto power. Similarly, America will not vacate the driver's seat of the Middle East limo for any contending power, nor will she stand idly by as Israel is thrown under the train—a situation that would provoke Israel to invoke the ‘’NEVER AGAIN’’ diktat. If and when Israel's back is against the wall, Israel has secretly vowed to use her last secret joker, capable of destroying the whole world five times over. In the same vein, Iran will not be allowed to possess a military-grade nuclear weapon, the conspiracy against Iran's nuclear power project is beyond Iran's comprehension.
The West feels that placing absolute power in the hands of an 'erratic, fanatical country' like Iran constitutes an existential threat to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, and the entire Middle East. Therefore, Iran will be stopped from becoming the “KABIYESI” of Middle East geopolitics, whatever it takes.
Besides, America will not allow a monopoly of power and unanimity of interests and voices in the Middle East. While Israel will retain her military superiority and technological dominance, courtesy of over 40 state-of-the-art F-35 stealth fighter jets among other dangerous weapons in her arsenal, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar will continue to be oases of prosperity amidst the desert of man-made multidimensional poverty in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria.
The House of Saud, the royal family in Saudi Arabia, consists of smart and well-tutored elites in diplomacy and power dynamics. They are highly unlikely to go frontally against American interests regarding changing the petrodollar status quo, or changing the balance of power in the Middle East which constitutes a red line for America. America may look away if Saudi Arabia dates, befriends, or even flirts with Russia or China, but an outright marriage is a forbidden fruit. It is America that guarantees the security of the Saudi throne vis-a-vis the Saud family back-to-back, horizontally and vertically.
Turkey's dream of a second coming through an Ottoman Empire 2.0 renaissance will not germinate or flourish, because it will alter the power geometry of the Middle East.
America overseas arms sales in 2023 was $238 billion, the bulk of It went to the Middle East, while the Base Year Market size of oil business in the region is in excess of a Trillion dollars. With this reality, perspective analysts can understand why peace will remain elusive in the Middle East. The world would have to get used to a Middle East of circular crises. Ceasefire? Yes. Permanent peace? No.
But someone might ask: does a declining America have the veto power to enforce all these probabilities? Read till the end to get the true picture of what is coming, geopolitically.
Europe is witnessing a cascading crisis as Russia aggressively redraws Ukraine's map. If Putin succeeds in swallowing the entire Ukraine, no nation in Europe will be safe, especially Poland, Estonia, and Finland. Sadly, Europe is grappling with three new distinct pandemics: migrant influx, an aging population, and catastrophic depopulation. Europe's population as a share of the global total has already been reduced by half over the last 60 years.
A boiling Asia is on the horizon as China prepares a cocktail of crises for Taiwan, with the long-expected invasion approaching zero hour. China's plan for a “ONE DAY WAR” with Taiwan could trigger World War III, as Taiwan is among the non-NATO countries that America is ready to defend militarily, even with boots on the ground.
On the 21st of April, America approved an additional $95 billion military aid package to Taiwan, Israel, and Ukraine. America owes its overwhelming global technological supremacy partly to Taiwan's semiconductor technology and Israel's peerless innovation in both cyber and physical security. Meanwhile, Japan, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia all have significant beef to settle with their big brother, China.
The November 2024 Presidential election is likely to be the most chaotic presidential election in U.S. history. The choice before the American electorate is akin to choosing between the Devil (Trump) and the Deep Blue Sea (Biden). One is colorful, inspiring, entertaining, but unpredictable and a pathological insult-merchant, while the other is colorless, uninspiring, might end up being a napping President, but is cool-headed and measured.
If Trump's second term becomes unstoppable, America's isolation becomes inevitable. Europe will openly and significantly flirt with China under Trump's watch. Trump's hardline migrant policy will stifle innovation, as there is a one-to-one correlation between migration and innovation. For instance, Steve Jobs' biological father was a Syrian migrant, and Steve went on to build the wealthiest company on earth, Apple, the first to achieve a trillion-dollar market capitalization in history, which is only possible in America.
NATO will go napping under Trump's watch, since Emmanuel Macron, the France President lacks the required charisma to pull through his ideas a United Europe Army (UEA). The Reason being that European politics has her own unresolved, unresolvable complications: the relationship between Germany and France is like that of lion, the King (Germany) and Hippo (France). When food is scarce, the big cats, through tactics will go in for a kill, but hippos are known to have very tick skin and the force to crush a lion’s skull. Trust is long dead and buried in Europe since the1940s.
China will be free to have Africa for a ‘’complimentary buffet breakfast’’, since Trump considers Africa a shithole continent, which is one of the reasons why Africa was missing on his priority list during his first term as American President.
Trump will significantly slow down China's technological advancement in the highly strategic semiconductor space. He will have the Taiwanese chip giant, TSMC, build its third facility in Arizona as part of its $65 billion investment in America to expedite the factory's completion. Recently, America approved a grant of $6.5 billion for TSMC to support its manufacturing projects in the U.S. as a PLAN B.
For China to catch up with America in semiconductor technology, its options are twofold and both perilous: invade Taiwan and annex TSMC, renaming it China Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (CSMC), or capture Malaysia, the world's sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors and the current hotspot. Whichever option China chooses, it will have to contend with America's aging but deadly lion, the king.
Trump will end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East swiftly, favoring Russia and Israel, respectively, and he will try harder than Biden to re-industrialize America. China's already sagging economy will face an 'exponential curve' under Trump's watch. Trump will befriend Putin, causing envy in China, annoyance in Europe and embarrassment in the UK. With Trump at the helm of global affairs again, alongside Putin, the number of hot wars globally will likely decrease. It's worth noting that Trump was the only recent American President who neither started nor fought in a hot global war. Trump is a four-star general in verbal wars, nonetheless.
The difference between Trump and the two George Bushes is that while the latter believed one had to destroy the city and its citizens to conquer a country, Trump believes you only need to take out the 'KING' cleanly. Trump seems smarter than Bush 1 & 2. He cleanly took out Iran's strongest military man, Qasem Soleimani, on January 3, 2020, in a targeted drone strike. Similarly, on October 27, 2019, Trump sent “a beautiful dog” to kill ISIS leader and founder, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria.
If Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, has not been removed by the time Trump returns, Netanyahu will face an internal Israeli revolt stealthily orchestrated by Trump that will sweep his ‘prime ministership’ into the dustbin of history. Netanyahu has overstayed his welcome as Prime Minister. It is necessary for a leader to know when to say ‘’I am full’’ and call it a day with power.
However, the world will be in the hands of maximum dictators who are commercially driven with zero moral compass: Presidents Trump, Xi, Putin, Kim Jong Un, and Tamas Sulyok, among others. Africa's military dictators' club will grow in numbers; more successful military coups in Africa will occur. Trump is a 'mixed bag' for the world. If the establishment tries to muscle him out of the November election, America's system faces implosion, and the Trumpeters are eagerly waiting and weighing all their options.
It is instructive that on the 19th of April, 2024, an American set himself on fire in front of the court where Trump is being tried for a hush money scandal. To his followers, that constitute about 50% of American voters, Trump is a victim of bad politics by the devilish establishment. By any reckoning, America is not looking good domestically, and even, internationally.
Global hunger represents another tipping point. Inside America, a welter of untold economic crises is unfolding; inflation is worsening as the cost of living becomes prohibitive. Recently, a TikTok user racked up 5 million views within seconds when he posted a rant saying, “I cannot afford to live.”
The reason for America's economic chaos is not far-fetched; it is a result of failed policies on outsourcing and the ill-advised theory of focusing on a narrow CORE COMPETENCE. This led to mega de-industrialization. About 56% of U.S. adults, according to a recent survey conducted by Bankrate, admitted that they lack emergency funds to handle a $1,000 unexpected expense. More than 50% of American adults are living on the edge of financial violence.
Globally, the rapid pace of innovation in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming frighteningly reminiscent of a Frankenstein monster for humanity. AI aims to devour over 30% of jobs for breakfast, another 25% for lunch, and another 25% for dinner. By 2040, what becomes of homo sapiens when only 20% of today's jobs remain relevant? As I write, eBay is laying off 9% of its workforce. A total of 32,445 workers at U.S.-based tech companies have lost their jobs in the first quarter of 2024 alone. In 2023, globally, Amazon reduced its workforce by 16,080, Alphabet by 12,000, Microsoft by 11,158, and Meta by 10,000 workers.
We are all witnesses to the negative side effects of ‘’AI rain’’ in the UAE, where the rain meant for one year fell in one day through ‘’cloud seeding,’’ causing unprecedented, destructive flooding. The global community needs to take the issue of AI regulation seriously before it is too late. Otherwise, the world will come to realize that global indecisiveness in regulating AI poses an existential threat to our collective humanity.
Global warming is another tipping point. According to NOAA's 2023 Annual Report, the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit (0.06 degrees Celsius) per decade, amounting to about 2 degrees Fahrenheit in total since 1850. The following European countries will be most affected by climate change, facing risks from floods and sea-level rise: France, the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium. They all share something in common: they are former colonizers.
Africa needs to get its act together and begin interrogating foreigners involved in massive land grabbing on the continent. Besides searching for natural resources, foreign land grabbers are also land bankers, which is closely related to climate change.
It is noteworthy that France is facing peculiar challenges in Africa. Russia has outmaneuvered France in some Francophone African countries, eroding France's influence in Rwanda, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Senegal. Without access to Africa's free resources, France risks fading away and becoming a shadow of its former self, much like Portugal and Italy, joining a club of former world champions, a third-class nation with a dangerous nuclear bomb at its disposal.
The last interregnum lasted from 1914 to 1945, a span of 31 years that included two world wars and the Great Depression of the 1930s. In 1914, the superpower was Great Britain. The Royal Navy of the British Empire dominated the high seas, and the British vetoed the global reserve currency, the Pound Sterling, while London was the center of global finance and commerce.
By 1945, America had replaced Great Britain as the new ‘’World's Kabiyesi’’ The global finance center had shifted to New York, the dollar had replaced the Pound Sterling as the world's reserve currency, and Washington, not London, now held the veto power, with the U.S. Navy controlling the high seas and the world's shipping lanes.
For the past 80 years, America has played the role of policing the high seas for uninterrupted free navigation and open international trade. However, in 2024, America is increasingly unable to carry out this role. The recent Suez Canal incident serves as a case study.
Remarkably, China has overtaken the US Navy in numerical strength with about 350 vessels. And according to the Pentagon, China Navy power will grow to be at least 50% larger than the American by 2035.
Secondly, in 1971, President Nixon ended the convertibility of the American dollar to gold, making the dollar a fiat currency, backed by nothing but government edict, a concept novel and unheard of in history. However, history shows that all fiat currencies have an expiration date, reaching their intrinsic value of zero. America is approaching that red line. The question is: what happens when the world's fiat currencies collapse? Armageddon!
Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ are increasingly accepting other currencies under the table for oil. Simultaneously, BRICS nations are determined to create a new global financial system. According to the Atlantic Council, 134 countries, accountable for 98% of global GDP, are exploring or are about to roll out central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). In short, there is a Currency World War (CWW) between USD and BRICS.
Where is the world headed?
Another interregnum, another time. (2015-2045- 30 years of earthshaking events are expected. Four variables will determine when the reigning “World's Kabiyesi” will expire or be overthrown in a bloody or bloodless coup.
First, whatever weapons man has invented, man has always used. Man has invented nuclear weapons, autonomous killing machines, chemical weapons, and climate weapons awaiting usage on a global scale. Mutual assured destruction (MAD) awaits humanity whenever the spirit of madness inspires nuclear nations to use these weapons. Thus, both the current Kabiyesi and the aspiring ones will mutually self-destruct. The world will be left in total ruins! This could happen between now and 2030.
Secondly, there's the ‘’Deng Xiaoping Doctrine of Peaceful Rising’’. Deng, the leader who built China 2.0, advised his country to avoid military confrontation with the West, stating: "It is a historical reality that at the appropriate time, the door will open and China will enter without frontally confronting America."
Thirdly, there's the Maktoum Doctrine: “Tough times create strong people, strong people create easy moments, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” The American elites of today inherited good moments, making them not as strong, hardworking, and focused as the current Chinese elites. Therefore, it's not a question of if but when the weak American elites will create hard times that may sink America, even without external push.
But Why 2045?
By 2045, when America will have been on the throne for 100 years, she may become fragile due to a combination of factors and events.
One factor is the majority-minority tipping point: America will become a 'minority-white (49.7%) country. The possibility of a white backlash or second civil war seems inevitable, contrasting with 24.4% for Hispanics, 13.1% for blacks, 7.9% for Asians, and 3.8% for multiracial populations.
Similarly, Secession is on the horizons: states like California and Texas may secede. Additionally, America's debt will reach an unsustainable level by then. Unless practical corrective policies are implemented soon, the bubble will burst, and America's horizon will darken around 2045.
In addition, by around 2045, China GDP, according to Statista, is forecasted to rise to $58.5trillion, while America will be in the 3rd position at $34.1 and India at the second position at $44.1trillion. A hundred-year-old super power with weak economy, battle weary and impotent NATO is like a 15-year-old lion in the wild that can no longer hunt, just awaiting death.
The question remains: Will China be patient enough until 2045 before her coronation as the new world's Kabiyesi, or will China push her luck by invading Taiwan and Japan, instigating Russia to invade Poland in addition to Ukraine, encouraging Iran to invade Saudi Arabia and Israel, while North Korea invades South Korea and the Philippines? In other words, will China initiate OPERATION "each one invades two - 4:2:2:2:2"?
Lesson for Africa
Africa needs to understand how the world works by dropping her begging bows. The world does not listen to any country or race on its knees, begging or relying on charity. The world is in a state of flux, experiencing labor contractions; therefore, Africa should not allow itself to be used as 'grass' suffering under two fighting elephants.
Outsourcing Africa's transformation agenda to China is a historical mistake that must be reversed before it's too late. History has not shown us transformation powered by kidney transplant. Each civilization that has transformed did so by using its own kidneys not through kidney transplant Most of the natural and mineral resources that China extracts from Africa are in ‘’composite form’’ Africa needs to refine its own raw materials within Africa, by Africans.
Furthermore, Africa's strongest secret power is the 6TH REGION, i.e. Africans in diaspora. We need a sincere, attractive, irresistible roadmap to forge a win-win strategic partnership with the 6th region.
Besides, the ongoing CURRENCY WAR will not abate until the two groups weaken each other. Smartness is when Africa launches AFRICA SINGLE CURRENCY now, when the currency water is still polluted.
Individuals need to train their eyes, minds, and brains to identify hidden RANDOM OPPORTUNITIES in the unfolding global events.
There is no better time to sink or swim than now.
Firstly, the world's currencies will likely revert to being backed by gold once the dust settles. China is stockpiling gold. Ditto Germany. Therefore, investing in gold right now couldn't come at a better time, for you.
Secondly, land is static, while the population is growing exponentially. Therefore, investing in land constitutes a smart move.
Thirdly, the world is in dire need of climate crisis solutions, like the cloud seeding that went wrong in the UAE. African Youths who can innovate climate change solutions will outperform Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos on the Forbes list of the richest people within a period of ten years.
Fourthly, the fire next time will be caused by a “water crisis”. Water will command more money than Coca-Cola in the future. This is already happening in some countries, like Angola.
Which technology will rule the future? Artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and green technologies. We can forgive our forefathers from the past 500 years who missed out on European inventions like the wind vane, steamships, steam engines, repeating firearms, and cartography, among others, which the Europeans used to enslave, colonize, and exploit us. But will the coming generations of Africans forgive you and me if we do nothing significant today to ensure our youth are not late to the Fourth Industrial Revolution party? OpenAI is in kindergarten school today; Africa should take the front row, and not the typical back seat, as our forefathers did in the past.
The elites should sponsor the youths to acquire the 4th Industrial Revolution skills. The Train is moving so fast at 700km/h, we cannot (and should not) wait for the government- before boarding the train. Africa needs you- yes- YOU!
Talk to me.
*Contributed by Mr. Tim Akano, President, One Africa Initiatives | timakano1@gmail.com
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